WASHINGTON - The U.S. acknowledged Friday that
Iraq is spiraling downward, with sectarian animosity growing and new Iraqi troops being added too slowly in a precarious mix that could draw the country's neighbors into the violence if American troops leave.
The sobering assessment from the National Intelligence Council was seen by congressional Democrats — and some Republicans — as new evidence that
President Bush's Iraq policy is failing.
"I do not see anything so far in the report that suggests the president's new plan is a winning strategy that protects America's national interest," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (news, bio, voting record), D-Nevada.
Yet top Bush administration officials said the intelligence assessment reinforced their view that the United States cannot leave Iraq. At a news conference, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he knew no one on Capitol Hill who believed that leaving the country in chaos "would have anything other than very serious and negative consequences for the United States and for the region."
Indeed, the report suggested that a pullout of U.S. troops could draw Iraq's neighbors into the violence.
Friday's newly declassified portions of a National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq concluded that Iraq's security situation is likely to get worse over the next 18 months unless the slide toward sectarian polarization and a weakening government is halted. Security forces — particularly the police — will be "hard-pressed" to handle their new responsibilities because of divisions that are tearing apart Iraqi society, the assessment said.
Any further negative event such as the assassination of a religious leader could hasten deterioration, it said. "The challenges facing Iraqis are daunting."
Gates said the extra troops that Iraq promised to send into Baghdad as part of a new U.S.-Iraqi military buildup are arriving in insufficient numbers. His outgoing commander in Baghdad, Gen. George Casey, has said the arriving Iraqi units have only 55 to 65 percent of their intended troops.
"Fifty-five percent probably isn't good enough," Gates said.
The problems facing Iraqi security forces are as basic as ensuring that troops can feed their families. The Iraqi government pays troops' salaries in cash, forcing them to return home to deposit their earnings. That, Gates said, increases absentee levels.
The intelligence assessment painted a picture of a country hanging in the balance.
Top U.S. intelligence analysts found that even if violence diminishes, Iraqi leaders will find major difficulties in reconciling differences among various sects. The analysts attributed it to a "winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene."
Knowing the findings were likely to become public, intelligence analysts stepped gingerly around one of the most politically charged questions of the Iraq debate: Is the country in the midst of a civil war?
The analysts found the term "civil war" doesn't entirely capture the complex situation in Iraq. In addition to Shiites fighting Sunnis, the country is also facing attacks on U.S. and coalition forces and struggles within ethnic and religious sects.
Yet the estimate said the term "civil war" does reflect key elements of the conflict: the hardening of sectarian identities, changes in the nature of the violence and the geographic displacement of significant segments of the population.
Bush's national security adviser,
Stephen Hadley, agreed with the pessimistic outlook of the report and its characterization of the civil strife. But Hadley continued the White House's practice of refusing to adopt the term "civil war."
"We need to get across the complexities of the situation we face in Iraq and what is our strategy to deal with that," he said, "and simple labels don't do that."
On Thursday, Bush was briefed on the conclusions of the full 90-page classified document. The administration decided to declassify most of the material in the key findings, spanning just over three pages. It marked a new way of handling politically sensitive National Intelligence Estimates, which normally become public only after leaks.
The bleak analysis prodded even some Republicans to criticize Bush. The estimate "makes clear that we cannot continue the same stubborn strategy that has brought us to this point in Iraq," said Michigan Rep. Peter Hoekstra (news, bio, voting record), the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee.
The report comes as the administration grows more worried about the role of
Iran in Iraq and the region. Among other moves, the administration is sending a second aircraft carrier battle group to the Persian Gulf region.
Gates said the carrier group is meant to underscore to friends and adversaries alike that the U.S. considers the Persian Gulf vital to its national interests. "We are not planning for a war with Iran," he said.
He acknowledged the United States is trying to counter Iran's role in providing so-called "explosively formed projectiles" — so lethal that they can take out an Abrams tank. He said these and other improvised explosive devices account for 70 percent of U.S. causalities in Iraq.
The intelligence estimate highlighted Iran's role in providing weapons and
Syria's inadequate border security measures. But analysts concluded that these actions aren't likely to be a major driver of Iraq's violence, which will sustain itself even without outside influence.
The spy agencies saved some of their most dire warnings for the consequences of a sudden U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Lawmakers are considering resolutions opposing Bush's plan to send 21,500 additional troops to the region.
If there is a quick withdrawal, analysts said, Iraqi security forces will not be able to survive and neighboring countries may become increasingly involved in the conflict. Al-Qaida in Iraq would also attempt to use the Sunni-dominated Anbar province of western Iraq as a base for attacks inside and outside the country, the report said. And spiraling violence, especially in the northern Kurdish areas, could prompt Turkey to act militarily.
The situation isn't without hope, the estimate found. The analysts concluded that some positive developments could — analysts stressed "could" — help reverse current trends. They include broader acceptance of the Sunni minority in the central government and concessions on the part of Shiites and Kurds to make more room for Sunni participation.
